Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 725 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 725 BOS 08:27 → BNA 10:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time Riskiest DL 2586 BOS 19:45 → BNA 21:49 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 725 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 08:27	BNA 10:03	11%	2%	0.6%	41%
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:20	BNA 10:16	12%	3%	0.7%	79%
B6 1807 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:24	BNA 08:07	13%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 1530 Southwest	BOS 14:08	BNA 15:43	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:40	BNA 16:36	27%	9%	1.0%	76%
B6 407 JetBlue	BOS 13:43	BNA 15:31	29%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 1257 Southwest	BOS 17:54	BNA 19:28	35%	16%	0.7%	no record
DL 2586 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:45	BNA 21:49	43%	20%	1.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON