Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1642 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1642 BOS 05:26 → BWI 06:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 697 BOS 18:28 → BWI 20:01 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1642 Southwest	BOS 05:26	BWI 06:54	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 5703 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:35	BWI 08:20	3%	2%	0.8%	90%
WN 4333 Southwest	BOS 08:23	BWI 09:57	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2706 Delta	BOS 07:27	BWI 09:01	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5668 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:10	BWI 12:53	9%	4%	0.8%	84%
WN 2098 Southwest	BOS 10:46	BWI 12:19	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 858 Southwest	BOS 13:18	BWI 14:52	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:50	BWI 17:42	17%	10%	1.3%	79%
WN 735 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 14:47	BWI 16:20	20%	7%	0.9%	36%
DL 5851 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	BWI 22:29	23%	15%	1.4%	63%
WN 3823 Southwest	BOS 16:59	BWI 18:32	27%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 697 Southwest	BOS 18:28	BWI 20:01	32%	14%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON