Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946	8h 35m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406	9h 41m	100%	91%
United Details →	BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647	3h 20m Denver	DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513	9h 42m	100%	90%
United Details →	BOS 06:21 → LAX 09:35UA 360	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212	12h 03m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	2h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	7h 57m	92%	85%
American Details →	BOS 08:01 → DFW 11:21AA 701	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:23 → BZN 15:40AA 947	9h 39m	98%	85%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:18 → BZN 12:57AA 1080	9h 47m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	BOS 07:03 → SEA 10:26AS 459	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → BZN 14:47AS 277	9h 44m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 18:45 → SLC 22:11DL 445	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	7h 38m	64%	59%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:40 → SEA 19:11DL 2889	48m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	9h 09m	64%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON