Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1410 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 1410 BOS 06:21 → CLE 08:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1341 BOS 18:19 → CLE 20:21 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1410 Delta	BOS 06:21	CLE 08:05	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 5674 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:30	CLE 10:35	10%	2%	0.9%	94%
DL 499 Delta	BOS 07:47	CLE 09:44	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 816 Delta	BOS 09:28	CLE 11:19	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
B6 2041 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:47	CLE 10:50	16%	3%	1.0%	83%
DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:54	CLE 17:06	20%	10%	1.8%	86%
DL 1297 Delta	BOS 13:40	CLE 15:28	26%	8%	1.5%	no record
DL 5655 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:55	CLE 23:07	38%	17%	2.1%	62%
B6 1341 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:19	CLE 20:21	41%	21%	3.2%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON