Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5626 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 5626 BOS 06:25 → CLT 08:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 922 BOS 18:27 → CLT 20:42 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	CLT 08:56	5%	2%	0.8%	89%
AA 418 American Flight history →	BOS 06:05	CLT 08:30	6%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:05	CLT 12:35	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 2715 American Flight history →	BOS 08:05	CLT 10:30	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1742 American	BOS 07:21	CLT 09:30	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:13	CLT 16:54	16%	7%	1.3%	80%
AA 1557 American Flight history →	BOS 11:42	CLT 14:00	21%	5%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
AA 1270 American	BOS 13:24	CLT 15:43	24%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 885 American Flight history →	BOS 15:30	CLT 17:50	30%	11%	1.0%	85%worse than usual
DL 5807 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:40	CLT 22:20	32%	17%	2.1%	66%
AA 922 American Flight history →	BOS 18:27	CLT 20:42	41%	15%	1.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON