Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 738 at 16:23, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 738 Southwest	BOS 16:23	DAL 19:09	31%	11%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BOS 08:27 → BNA 10:03WN 725	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 12:43 → DAL 14:35WN 485	7h 08m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	8h 03m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	8h 15m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	8h 39m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	BOS 15:20 → MDW 16:48WN 746	2h 23m Chicago	MDW 19:11 → DAL 21:31WN 2711	7h 11m	88%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON