Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5687 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 5687 BOS 06:00 → DCA 07:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2255 BOS 18:07 → DCA 20:04 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DCA 07:49	5%	2%	1.0%	93%
AA 1535 American Flight history →	BOS 06:05	DCA 08:02	6%	3%	1.1%	81%
B6 455 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DCA 07:51	8%	3%	1.0%	68%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:15	DCA 11:07	8%	3%	0.9%	87%
DL 5692 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:25	DCA 09:21	8%	2%	0.9%	89%
AA 4342 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:09	DCA 09:14	9%	2%	0.9%	85%
YX 4465 Republic	BOS 08:34	DCA 10:43	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 3240 American Flight history →	BOS 09:19	DCA 11:13	10%	4%	1.1%	85%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:20	DCA 12:12	12%	4%	1.0%	85%
B6 1055 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:51	DCA 09:49	13%	4%	1.0%	86%
B6 2355 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:29	DCA 10:10	13%	4%	1.0%	66%
AA 1164 American	BOS 10:56	DCA 12:51	15%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 5672 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:13	DCA 14:08	18%	6%	1.0%	85%
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:09	DCA 14:16	19%	7%	1.0%	60%
DL 5704 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:48	DCA 23:44	21%	11%	2.2%	77%
YX 4510 Republic	BOS 14:09	DCA 16:18	22%	10%	1.5%	no record
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:20	DCA 16:17	23%	11%	1.5%	69%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:45	DCA 17:49	26%	15%	1.6%	69%
B6 855 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:53	DCA 14:34	29%	14%	1.2%	65%
B6 755 JetBlue	BOS 14:11	DCA 16:09	29%	15%	1.9%	no record
B6 1355 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:10	DCA 17:56	31%	19%	1.9%	57%
DL 5667 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:50	DCA 19:56	32%	19%	2.0%	63%
AA 1421 American Flight history →	BOS 17:43	DCA 19:44	33%	19%	2.0%	52%
B6 1955 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:10	DCA 18:58	34%	22%	1.9%	57%
DL 5666 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:05	DCA 22:03	35%	18%	2.0%	59%
AA 4047 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 20:22	DCA 22:19	36%	16%	5.9%	55%
AA 1004 American Flight history →	BOS 19:38	DCA 21:32	37%	21%	2.1%	58%
B6 2255 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:07	DCA 20:04	40%	23%	3.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON