Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 647 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 647 BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 352 BOS 16:49 → DEN 19:07 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 647 United Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:19	10%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 2348 United	BOS 09:23	DEN 11:45	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 302 Southwest	BOS 09:29	DEN 11:45	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 414 United Flight history →	BOS 12:22	DEN 14:53	15%	4%	0.7%	90%
B6 393 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:19	DEN 11:52	21%	4%	0.7%	79%
UA 2297 United Flight history →	BOS 15:10	DEN 17:55	29%	10%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
UA 800 United Flight history →	BOS 16:57	DEN 19:45	33%	10%	0.7%	75%
UA 1932 United	BOS 20:47	DEN 23:05	36%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 352 Southwest	BOS 16:49	DEN 19:07	39%	9%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	51m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 08m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:10 → DTW 15:20DL 2222	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431	6h 17m	80%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON