Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2527 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2527 BOS 06:00 → DFW 09:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3102 BOS 17:04 → DFW 20:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2527 American Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DFW 09:22	7%	2%	0.9%	91%
AA 701 American Flight history →	BOS 08:01	DFW 11:21	8%	3%	0.9%	91%
AA 1209 American	BOS 08:35	DFW 11:49	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 479 American Flight history →	BOS 09:01	DFW 12:19	11%	4%	0.9%	85%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:15	DFW 10:23	13%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 303 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:05	DFW 15:17	18%	7%	0.7%	69%
AA 1438 American Flight history →	BOS 13:04	DFW 16:15	22%	8%	1.3%	69%
AA 1442 American Flight history →	BOS 14:39	DFW 17:49	27%	10%	1.2%	58%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	BOS 17:04	DFW 20:23	33%	13%	1.4%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	BOS 06:04 → JFK 07:22AA 4357 · flown by Republic	53m New York	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	6h 07m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 54m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:00 → LGA 11:15DL 5744 · flown by Republic	1h 14m New York	LGA 12:29 → DFW 15:10DL 869	6h 10m	91%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON