Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5764 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–54%.

Safest bet that day DL 5764 BOS 06:25 → EWR 07:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 555 BOS 17:55 → EWR 19:29 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5764 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	EWR 07:54	6%	2%	2.9%	94%
UA 1833 United Flight history →	BOS 06:05	EWR 07:29	6%	2%	1.6%	94%
UA 570 United Flight history →	BOS 08:00	EWR 09:23	10%	3%	1.6%	90%
UA 1307 United Flight history →	BOS 09:30	EWR 10:58	12%	4%	1.7%	90%
DL 8950 Delta	BOS 00:21	EWR 01:39	15%	7%	2.6%	no record
UA 2394 United Flight history →	BOS 10:58	EWR 12:26	17%	7%	1.7%	88%
UA 2104 United	BOS 12:23	EWR 13:46	33%	14%	1.5%	no record
DL 5829 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:55	EWR 14:22	34%	12%	3.1%	71%
UA 2060 United Flight history →	BOS 20:27	EWR 22:00	46%	23%	1.9%	64%worse than usual
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:15	EWR 19:58	51%	24%	6.1%	60%worse than usual
UA 1647 United Flight history →	BOS 15:38	EWR 17:00	51%	26%	1.7%	41%
UA 1693 United Flight history →	BOS 19:00	EWR 20:38	51%	29%	2.2%	69%worse than usual
UA 555 United	BOS 17:55	EWR 19:29	54%	27%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON