Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 569 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–41%.

Safest bet that day B6 569 BOS 06:34 → FLL 09:56 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 369 BOS 18:13 → FLL 21:42 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 569 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:34	FLL 09:56	14%	3%	0.9%	82%
B6 69 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:25	FLL 11:57	23%	6%	0.9%	68%
B6 269 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 14:44	FLL 18:16	34%	15%	1.3%	59%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:32	FLL 19:04	37%	16%	1.3%	62%
B6 369 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:13	FLL 21:42	41%	20%	2.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON