Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 4786 Republic	BOS 09:59	ILM 12:21	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 1293 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:37	ILM 13:58	8%	3%	0.5%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	8h 13m	100%	94%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 08:25 → ILM 11:43AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	6h 33m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 48m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:00 → LGA 11:15DL 5744 · flown by Republic	3h 30m New York	LGA 14:45 → ILM 16:30DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	6h 30m	100%	91%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	3h 40m Charlotte	CLT 12:10 → ILM 13:20AA 5416 · flown by PSA	7h 15m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	7h 46m	98%	89%
American Details →	BOS 08:05 → CLT 10:30AA 2715	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 13:49 → ILM 14:59AA 2413	6h 54m	98%	87%
American Details →	BOS 09:19 → DCA 11:13AA 3240	2h 17m Washington	DCA 13:30 → ILM 15:06AA 5313 · flown by PSA	5h 47m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON