Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5628 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day DL 5628 BOS 07:35 → IND 10:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest YX 4675 BOS 17:09 → IND 19:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5628 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:35	IND 10:16	7%	3%	0.7%	88%
YX 4385 Republic	BOS 07:24	IND 09:49	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4393 Republic	BOS 11:04	IND 13:47	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 5627 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:59	IND 16:46	14%	8%	1.1%	85%
DL 5616 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:45	IND 20:34	25%	15%	1.2%	77%
YX 4675 Republic	BOS 17:09	IND 19:54	25%	15%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON