Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 109 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–33%.

Safest bet that day B6 109 BOS 07:05 → JAX 09:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 5593 BOS 20:35 → JAX 23:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 109 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:05	JAX 09:56	11%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:50	JAX 11:44	12%	3%	0.7%	83%
B6 509 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:04	JAX 15:59	23%	11%	1.3%	68%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:35	JAX 18:41	26%	14%	1.0%	76%
DL 5593 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	JAX 23:39	33%	17%	0.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON