Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2611 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–50%.

Safest bet that day DL 2611 BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 817 BOS 19:39 → JFK 21:00 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2611 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:05	JFK 07:30	4%	2%	1.2%	93%
AA 4357 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:04	JFK 07:22	4%	2%	1.9%	100%
B6 717 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 05:05	JFK 06:29	6%	3%	1.9%	62%
B6 917 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:09	JFK 08:30	9%	2%	2.2%	94%
DL 5720 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:05	JFK 10:24	9%	3%	3.0%	87%
B6 8358 JetBlue	BOS 07:03	JFK 08:26	11%	3%	2.0%	no record
B6 1017 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:41	JFK 09:59	14%	5%	2.9%	67%
AA 4687 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:44	JFK 13:12	20%	10%	4.1%	66%
B6 1117 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:20	JFK 12:44	21%	12%	3.1%	75%
DL 5808 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:35	JFK 15:10	26%	13%	4.9%	76%
DL 5702 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:20	JFK 22:47	29%	15%	4.9%	66%
YX 4745 Republic	BOS 17:37	JFK 19:13	37%	21%	6.0%	no record
DL 5814 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	JFK 18:42	38%	21%	6.6%	66%
B6 317 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:31	JFK 17:51	38%	19%	4.6%	60%
B6 817 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:39	JFK 21:00	50%	24%	3.5%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON