Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day


B6 1577 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:06	LAS 09:51	12%	3%	0.6%	68%
B6 1177 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:35	LAS 13:21	13%	3%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 30m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	9h 31m	99%	92%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 41m Dulles	IAD 09:04 → LAS 11:12UA 1323	8h 27m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:35 → IND 10:16DL 5628 · flown by Republic	3h 45m Indianapolis	IND 14:01 → LAS 15:08DL 8962	10h 33m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659	11h 04m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	4h 00m New York	JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807	10h 56m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 42m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:50DL 919	10h 20m	100%	91%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BOS 07:03 → SEA 10:26AS 459	51m Seattle	SEA 11:17 → LAS 13:45AS 612	9h 42m	67%	48%
Alaska Details →	BOS 08:28 → SAN 11:43AS 256	47m San Diego	SAN 12:30 → LAS 13:58AS 2255 · flown by Horizon	8h 30m	60%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON