Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 479 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 479 BOS 06:20 → LAX 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 639 BOS 18:26 → LAX 21:51 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 479 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	LAX 09:35	8%	2%	0.7%	81%
UA 360 United Flight history →	BOS 06:21	LAX 09:35	10%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 2455 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	LAX 10:19	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 2004 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:55	LAX 14:03	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 2141 American	BOS 10:35	LAX 13:59	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
B6 287 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LAX 09:09	13%	2%	0.7%	85%
UA 659 United	BOS 11:43	LAX 15:06	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 687 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:40	LAX 10:50	16%	3%	0.7%	87%
B6 1487 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LAX 14:09	19%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 318 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:25	LAX 19:44	21%	11%	0.8%	74%
B6 1187 JetBlue	BOS 15:57	LAX 19:29	21%	12%	0.9%	no record
DL 610 Delta	BOS 20:39	LAX 00:03	25%	11%	0.9%	no record
B6 387 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:00	LAX 21:34	26%	16%	1.5%	69%
AA 1578 American Flight history →	BOS 17:33	LAX 20:55	27%	13%	1.0%	67%
UA 639 United Flight history →	BOS 18:26	LAX 21:51	30%	16%	1.1%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 58m Dulles	IAD 09:21 → LAX 11:51UA 657	9h 06m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 15m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON