tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4630 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–50%.

Safest bet that day YX 4630 BOS 06:01 → LGA 07:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5716 BOS 18:59 → LGA 20:29 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
YX 4630 Republic BOS 06:01 LGA 07:21 5% 2% 1.9% no record
DL 2524 Delta BOS 06:58 LGA 08:14 7% 3% 2.1% no record
YX 5804 Republic BOS 06:14 LGA 07:28 7% 2% 1.9% no record
AA 4470 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 07:09 LGA 08:35 11% 3% 2.2% 78%
DL 5735 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 08:00 LGA 09:25 12% 3% 2.2% 87%
DL 5840 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 07:21 LGA 08:33 12% 3% 2.7% 69%
DL 5732 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 09:00 LGA 10:22 13% 4% 2.9% 88%
YX 4371 Republic BOS 08:10 LGA 09:39 14% 5% 2.9% no record
DL 5744 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 10:00 LGA 11:15 15% 5% 2.9% 86%
YX 4386 Republic BOS 10:39 LGA 12:04 16% 7% 3.0% no record
DL 5755 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 11:00 LGA 12:19 20% 7% 3.0% 85%
DL 5854 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 12:00 LGA 13:21 24% 14% 4.6% 71%
DL 5748 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 13:00 LGA 14:27 28% 18% 5.0% 82%worse than usual
DL 5730 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 14:00 LGA 15:20 31% 22% 5.7% 77%
AA 1461 American BOS 12:21 LGA 13:43 31% 19% 4.9% no record
DL 5736 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 15:00 LGA 16:30 33% 24% 5.1% 74%
AA 1629 American BOS 14:15 LGA 15:37 34% 21% 2.8% no record
DL 5609 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 21:00 LGA 22:21 37% 22% 5.2% 67%
DL 5726 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 16:00 LGA 17:30 37% 26% 5.5% 68%
DL 5721 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 17:00 LGA 18:29 42% 28% 7.4% 69%worse than usual
YX 5621 Republic BOS 20:01 LGA 21:25 45% 28% 4.7% no record
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 17:39 LGA 19:12 45% 33% 5.4% 60%
DL 1717 Delta BOS 18:02 LGA 19:18 47% 28% 2.5% no record
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 19:32 LGA 20:56 47% 31% 5.5% 57%
DL 5716 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 18:59 LGA 20:29 50% 36% 8.5% 64%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON