tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 4715 at 20:30, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4715 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 20:30 MDT 22:10 16% 6% 0.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:23 → MDT 14:25DL 1354 7h 40m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 7h 22m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283 7h 23m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:50 → ORD 11:43UA 1349 2h 24m Chicago ORD 14:07 → MDT 17:02UA 533 7h 12m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → BOS 12:03 → ORD 13:57AA 3048 2h 03m Chicago ORD 16:00 → MDT 19:05AA 3243 7h 02m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → BOS 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 1475 2h 17m Chicago ORD 19:22 → MDT 22:09UA 1719 6h 56m 93% 72%
AmericanDetails → BOS 15:28 → ORD 17:38AA 1563 1h 26m Chicago ORD 19:04 → MDT 22:20AA 2400 6h 52m 89% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON