Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1418 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1418 BOS 05:10 → MIA 08:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 776 BOS 15:15 → MIA 18:58 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1418 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	MIA 08:38	5%	1%	0.7%	96%
AA 1259 American Flight history →	BOS 08:00	MIA 11:34	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 2247 American Flight history →	BOS 12:52	MIA 16:32	20%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 1184 American	BOS 18:09	MIA 21:39	25%	10%	1.0%	no record
DL 776 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:15	MIA 18:58	26%	9%	1.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON