Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5603 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:08	MSN 15:03	9%	3%	0.7%	85%
YX 4676 Republic	BOS 20:03	MSN 21:52	15%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	8h 51m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 52m	97%	89%
American Details →	BOS 08:58 → ORD 11:00AA 1239	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 13:41 → MSN 14:41AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	6h 43m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:20 → DCA 12:12DL 5592 · flown by Republic	3h 08m Washington	DCA 15:20 → MSN 16:39DL 5645 · flown by Republic	7h 19m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 17:02 → MSN 18:14DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor	7h 24m	99%	88%
American Details →	BOS 17:53 → ORD 20:04AA 2837	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 22:59 → MSN 23:59AA 4045 · flown by Envoy	7h 06m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	8h 28m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON