Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3324 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–58%.

Safest bet that day AA 3324 BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3160 BOS 19:06 → ORD 20:53 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3324 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	ORD 07:04	8%	3%	1.7%	92%
UA 1414 United Flight history →	BOS 06:00	ORD 07:58	10%	3%	1.2%	95%
AA 1239 American Flight history →	BOS 08:58	ORD 11:00	13%	4%	1.3%	93%
AA 1509 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	ORD 09:01	15%	4%	1.5%	90%
UA 1349 United Flight history →	BOS 09:50	ORD 11:43	16%	5%	1.0%	87%
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:30	ORD 09:26	16%	5%	1.2%	82%
UA 2631 United Flight history →	BOS 07:19	ORD 09:17	17%	5%	1.2%	91%
UA 503 United Flight history →	BOS 10:35	ORD 12:28	18%	7%	1.1%	86%
AA 2607 American	BOS 10:35	ORD 12:31	18%	7%	1.5%	no record
UA 2751 United	BOS 07:55	ORD 09:42	21%	5%	1.0%	no record
B6 111 JetBlue	BOS 06:54	ORD 08:44	22%	5%	1.7%	no record
UA 1732 United Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ORD 14:23	24%	11%	1.0%	85%
AA 3048 American Flight history →	BOS 12:03	ORD 13:58	24%	10%	1.4%	81%
DL 2816 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:25	ORD 14:19	25%	11%	1.3%	83%
AA 547 American Flight history →	BOS 13:25	ORD 15:10	28%	13%	1.8%	74%
AA 1563 American Flight history →	BOS 15:28	ORD 17:38	35%	21%	2.2%	52%
UA 1475 United Flight history →	BOS 15:13	ORD 17:05	40%	20%	1.2%	65%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:15	ORD 18:19	42%	23%	1.9%	61%
AA 2837 American Flight history →	BOS 17:53	ORD 20:04	42%	22%	2.2%	40%
DL 2804 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:45	ORD 22:39	46%	25%	1.7%	47%
UA 563 United	BOS 17:00	ORD 18:49	47%	22%	1.2%	no record
UA 2229 United Flight history →	BOS 20:15	ORD 22:15	47%	21%	1.2%	57%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	BOS 16:26	ORD 18:08	48%	22%	2.3%	50%
B6 811 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:10	ORD 19:15	51%	27%	1.8%	58%
UA 1015 United Flight history →	BOS 18:43	ORD 20:40	56%	25%	1.7%	51%
AA 3160 American	BOS 19:06	ORD 20:53	58%	24%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON