Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2720 at 09:08 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2720 BOS 09:08 → MCO 12:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 451 BOS 19:20 → MCO 22:33 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2720 American	BOS 09:08	MCO 12:27	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
B6 351 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:16	MCO 09:26	9%	2%	0.8%	85%
B6 651 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:36	MCO 13:49	15%	4%	0.9%	80%
DL 2887 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:27	MCO 18:54	26%	12%	1.2%	73%
B6 2251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:44	MCO 17:00	29%	11%	1.3%	75%
DL 1513 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:16	MCO 23:32	34%	14%	1.1%	68%
B6 251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:55	MCO 23:10	43%	20%	1.6%	52%
B6 451 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:20	MCO 22:33	44%	20%	1.6%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 10:00 → RDU 12:04DL 2118	52m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 12:56 → MCO 14:45DL 1377	4h 45m	85%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON