Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5845 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 5845 BOS 06:50 → PHL 08:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2110 BOS 19:05 → PHL 20:52 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:50	PHL 08:30	3%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:50	PHL 12:28	4%	1%	0.6%	87%
AA 1540 American Flight history →	BOS 06:05	PHL 07:50	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 4643 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:09	PHL 14:58	5%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 1399 Delta	BOS 07:18	PHL 08:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 1159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:00	PHL 08:30	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:10	PHL 16:53	6%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 2788 American	BOS 09:22	PHL 10:58	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:39	PHL 20:18	10%	3%	0.6%	66%
B6 1859 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:25	PHL 15:09	10%	4%	0.6%	69%
AA 2764 American Flight history →	BOS 08:03	PHL 09:40	10%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 2086 American Flight history →	BOS 11:00	PHL 12:40	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 5610 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:25	PHL 22:07	12%	3%	0.7%	57%
B6 2459 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:10	PHL 17:54	13%	5%	0.6%	69%
AA 1776 American Flight history →	BOS 15:11	PHL 16:53	14%	3%	0.6%	72%
B6 159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:29	PHL 22:13	15%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 2110 American	BOS 19:05	PHL 20:52	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON