Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2315 BOS 07:00 → PHX 09:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1057 BOS 13:00 → PHX 15:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2315 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	PHX 09:33	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1653 American Flight history →	BOS 10:06	PHX 12:44	10%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 1057 American Flight history →	BOS 13:00	PHX 15:45	11%	3%	0.6%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 29m Dulles	IAD 08:52 → PHX 10:50UA 709	8h 05m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	7h 14m	96%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON