Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2066 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2066 BOS 06:20 → RDU 08:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2782 BOS 17:15 → RDU 19:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2066 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	RDU 08:28	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 817 Delta Flight history →	BOS 00:36	RDU 02:31	10%	3%	0.7%	55%
DL 2118 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:00	RDU 12:04	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
B6 2083 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:03	RDU 10:16	18%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 2283 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:03	RDU 15:09	22%	6%	1.0%	83%
B6 2283 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:19	RDU 13:20	23%	5%	0.9%	78%
B6 2383 JetBlue	BOS 14:18	RDU 16:30	29%	11%	1.2%	no record
DL 2782 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:15	RDU 19:37	30%	14%	1.1%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON