tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4171 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BOS 09:55 ROC 11:30 5% 2% 0.6% 94%
AA 4709 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 16:19 ROC 17:57 9% 3% 0.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324 1h 18m Chicago ORD 08:22 → ROC 11:21AA 4104 · flown by Envoy 6h 11m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511 6h 01m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 14:47 → BWI 16:20WN 735 3h 36m Baltimore BWI 19:56 → ROC 21:13WN 1065 6h 26m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418 1h 38m Charlotte CLT 10:08 → ROC 12:04AA 2742 5h 59m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 02m Dulles IAD 08:25 → ROC 09:52UA 4615 · flown by GoJet 4h 07m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → PHL 07:50AA 1540 1h 00m Philadelphia PHL 08:50 → ROC 10:21AA 6126 · flown by Piedmont 4h 16m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047 7h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098 1h 43m Dulles IAD 12:50 → ROC 14:18UA 4485 · flown by GoJet 4h 53m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON