Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 219 BOS 08:50 → SAN 11:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 256 BOS 08:28 → SAN 11:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 219 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:50	SAN 11:55	12%	3%	0.7%	89%
B6 319 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:20	SAN 19:27	15%	3%	0.6%	79%
WN 1957 Southwest	BOS 09:09	SAN 12:15	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 256 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 08:28	SAN 11:43	19%	2%	0.7%	85%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 25m New York	JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683	8h 50m	99%	90%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49UA 1930	8h 04m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 57m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON