tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 09:26 SDF 12:09 5% 2% 0.5% 85%
YX 4362 Republic BOS 13:15 SDF 15:56 7% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 6h 21m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 7h 42m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 7h 56m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138 3h 26m Minneapolis MSP 12:48 → SDF 15:45DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 8h 35m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → SDF 21:36DL 2842 7h 41m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 14:47 → BWI 16:20WN 735 3h 22m Baltimore BWI 19:42 → SDF 21:24WN 439 6h 37m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOS 07:21 → LGA 08:33DL 5840 · flown by Republic 2h 32m New York LGA 11:05 → SDF 13:27DL 5637 · flown by Republic 6h 06m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → BOS 09:01 → DFW 12:19AA 479 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:14 → SDF 17:37AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 8h 36m 97% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BOS 19:00 → EWR 20:38UA 1693 51m Newark EWR 21:29 → SDF 23:51UA 3609 · flown by Republic 4h 51m 67% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON