Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 384 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 384 BOS 07:53 → SEA 11:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 289 BOS 19:50 → SEA 23:02 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 384 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:53	SEA 11:16	14%	3%	0.7%	77%
DL 332 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:29	SEA 14:50	16%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 2889 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:40	SEA 19:11	21%	10%	0.8%	71%
AS 459 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 07:03	SEA 10:26	21%	3%	0.7%	75%
AS 215 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 10:03	SEA 12:57	21%	3%	0.7%	64%
B6 397 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:31	SEA 22:51	28%	14%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
DL 324 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:29	SEA 23:02	29%	14%	1.1%	67%
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 19:55	SEA 22:54	42%	14%	1.2%	60%
AS 289 Alaska	BOS 19:50	SEA 23:02	43%	15%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 04m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 10m	93%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON