Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 977 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 977 BOS 07:20 → SFO 10:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 2400 BOS 18:10 → SFO 21:47 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 977 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:20	SFO 10:51	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 726 United	BOS 09:18	SFO 12:51	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2317 United	BOS 07:45	SFO 11:21	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:11	SFO 13:45	17%	4%	0.7%	51%
B6 633 JetBlue	BOS 10:37	SFO 14:07	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 833 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:57	SFO 13:26	19%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 1074 United Flight history →	BOS 11:28	SFO 15:02	20%	6%	0.7%	80%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	BOS 13:52	SFO 17:27	24%	8%	0.8%	84%
DL 1655 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:05	SFO 20:51	28%	12%	0.9%	69%
B6 413 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:55	SFO 00:30	28%	14%	1.1%	31%
B6 733 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:00	SFO 20:34	30%	13%	1.0%	59%
UA 754 United	BOS 16:13	SFO 19:48	31%	11%	0.7%	no record
B6 933 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:17	SFO 21:54	36%	14%	1.5%	71%
UA 2400 United Flight history →	BOS 18:10	SFO 21:47	42%	14%	1.0%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 08:45 → CVG 11:12DL 5601 · flown by Republic	1h 54m Hebron	CVG 13:06 → SFO 14:49DL 860	9h 04m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 59m	99%	86%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 34m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON