Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 859 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:05	SLC 09:17	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 445 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:45	SLC 22:11	30%	16%	1.1%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	9h 09m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 40m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:50 → LAS 10:32DL 497	2h 43m Las Vegas	LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659	9h 54m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:45 → CVG 11:12DL 5601 · flown by Republic	2h 54m Hebron	CVG 14:06 → SLC 15:54DL 464	9h 09m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	9h 05m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	BOS 08:27 → BNA 10:03WN 725	2h 31m Nashville	BNA 12:34 → SLC 15:12WN 1306	8h 45m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:16 → MSP 10:25DL 1308	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	10h 00m	97%	89%
American Details →	BOS 13:00 → PHX 15:45AA 1057	3h 17m Phoenix	PHX 19:02 → SLC 21:50AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest	10h 50m	98%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 14:39 → DFW 17:49AA 1442	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34AA 558	7h 55m	73%	53%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:15 → ORD 18:19DL 2646	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 19:46 → SLC 22:06DL 1448	7h 51m	74%	51%
American Details →	BOS 17:04 → DFW 20:23AA 3102	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993	7h 55m	52%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON