Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3013 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3013 BOS 05:44 → STL 07:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 999 BOS 17:45 → STL 19:37 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3013 Southwest	BOS 05:44	STL 07:29	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3546 Envoy	BOS 06:22	STL 08:24	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2550 Southwest	BOS 13:09	STL 14:59	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 4727 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:30	STL 17:43	26%	12%	1.3%	81%
WN 999 Southwest	BOS 17:45	STL 19:37	36%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON