Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4635 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day


AA 4635 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:36	SYR 10:06	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
B6 845 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:15	SYR 20:44	23%	10%	0.6%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991	8h 03m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → SYR 11:25DL 1375	5h 55m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690	7h 44m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SYR 23:48DL 2123	7h 18m	98%	86%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	2h 14m Charlotte	CLT 10:44 → SYR 12:48AA 2730	6h 43m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 40m New York	JFK 09:10 → SYR 10:41DL 5436 · flown by Endeavor	4h 36m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	1h 56m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → SYR 22:58DL 1689	5h 43m	95%	85%
United Details →	BOS 09:50 → ORD 11:43UA 1349	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → SYR 16:48UA 2343	6h 58m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON