Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 691 BOS 06:37 → TPA 09:54 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2234 BOS 18:29 → TPA 21:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 691 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:37	TPA 09:54	13%	2%	1.3%	84%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:05	TPA 19:38	17%	6%	1.2%	73%
B6 791 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:15	TPA 14:47	20%	5%	1.3%	80%
DL 2234 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:29	TPA 21:47	22%	7%	1.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON