Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27% (calm day: 12%). Best bet: JetBlue via Fort Lauderdale, leaving 16:05, 67% on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	BQN 16:05 → FLL 18:50B6 2072	3h 25m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 22:15 → JFK 01:18 +1B6 1902	9h 13m	95%	67%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 08:39 → MCO 11:34B6 729	3h 23m Orlando	MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084	9h 05m	99%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON