Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 729 JetBlue Flight history →	BQN 08:39	MCO 11:34	14%	4%	2.1%	89%
F9 1097 Frontier Flight history →	BQN 11:07	MCO 14:22	19%	5%	2.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BQN 00:15 → EWR 04:12UA 1162	2h 18m Newark	EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16UA 788	9h 01m	98%	89%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 16:05 → FLL 18:50B6 2072	2h 09m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:59 → MCO 22:09B6 1948	6h 04m	89%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON