tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1674 at 09:43, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1674 Southwest BUF 09:43 BNA 10:44 3% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756 2h 19m Baltimore BWI 09:34 → BNA 10:27WN 882 5h 27m 100% 95%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 100% 94%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 41m Charlotte CLT 10:42 → BNA 11:14AA 1295 6h 13m 98% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 15:20 → BWI 16:40WN 758 1h 55m Baltimore BWI 18:35 → BNA 19:29WN 737 5h 09m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 12:25 → MDW 13:11WN 766 1h 25m Chicago MDW 14:36 → BNA 16:06WN 2677 4h 41m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:41UA 543 3h 28m Chicago ORD 11:09 → BNA 12:53UA 2414 6h 57m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:55 → ATL 18:00DL 2266 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 20:24 → BNA 20:37DL 3002 5h 42m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:50 → JFK 08:15DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 3h 23m New York JFK 11:38 → BNA 12:54DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 7h 04m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON