Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 756 BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 758 BUF 15:26 → BWI 16:41 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 756 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 06:00	BWI 07:15	3%	1%	0.7%	97%
WN 3374 Southwest	BUF 08:58	BWI 10:17	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1156 Southwest	BUF 11:56	BWI 13:15	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 758 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 15:26	BWI 16:41	12%	3%	0.7%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON