Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1727 United Flight history →	BUF 09:00	DEN 10:35	5%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 4564 Southwest	BUF 15:59	DEN 17:24	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756	2h 22m Baltimore	BWI 09:37 → DEN 11:19WN 938	7h 19m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 05m	99%	92%
American Details →	BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont	2h 39m Philadelphia	PHL 09:25 → DEN 11:32AA 1313	8h 12m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	58m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 18m	95%	89%
United Details →	BUF 06:55 → ORD 07:40UA 543	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 11:09 → DEN 12:53UA 2857	7h 58m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	BUF 12:31 → MDW 13:12WN 766	2h 35m Chicago	MDW 15:47 → DEN 17:19WN 274	6h 48m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	7h 40m	99%	87%
Frontier Details →	BUF 14:48 → ATL 17:08F9 1407	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DEN 22:05F9 3599	9h 17m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON