Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 21m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	2h 33m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 27m	99%	91%
American Details →	BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 10:50 → EWR 12:50AA 1697	6h 49m	98%	88%
United Details →	BUF 06:55 → ORD 07:40UA 543	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 09:20 → EWR 12:33UA 2238	5h 38m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527	6h 42m	98%	81%
United Details →	BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	6h 49m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	5h 37m	95%	77%
American Details →	BUF 10:34 → ORD 11:27AA 1195	1h 43m Chicago	ORD 13:10 → EWR 16:30AA 1936	5h 56m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON