tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via BWI, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756 1h 49m Baltimore BWI 09:04 → LAX 11:28WN 1003 8h 28m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 1h 40m Philadelphia PHL 08:26 → LAX 11:14AA 824 8h 54m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:15 → BOS 08:51AA 4788 · flown by Republic 1h 44m Boston BOS 10:35 → LAX 13:59AA 2141 9h 44m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727 2h 51m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 8h 57m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:31 → LAX 12:57AA 442 8h 56m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 15:39 → LAX 17:22DL 301 8h 06m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 53m Detroit DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523 6h 51m 94% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 26m 64% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON