tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 19:22, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1749 Delta BUF 19:22 MSP 20:41 10% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 3h 47m Detroit DTW 11:29 → MSP 12:18DL 1746 6h 49m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310 8h 27m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981 7h 59m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 3h 38m New York LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 8h 05m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 12:31 → MDW 13:12WN 766 1h 12m Chicago MDW 14:24 → MSP 15:49WN 1456 4h 18m 94% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 3h 05m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 7h 50m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:55 → ORD 07:40UA 543 3h 06m Chicago ORD 10:46 → MSP 12:22UA 215 6h 27m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 54m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 4h 37m 74% 63%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:50 → JFK 17:31DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 49m New York JFK 18:20 → MSP 21:00DL 4933 · flown by Endeavor 6h 10m 75% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON