Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1195 at 10:34 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1195 BUF 10:34 → ORD 11:27 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2747 BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1195 American Flight history →	BUF 10:34	ORD 11:27	17%	8%	2.0%	88%
UA 543 United Flight history →	BUF 06:55	ORD 07:40	19%	6%	1.4%	85%
YX 4751 Republic	BUF 12:03	ORD 13:02	21%	7%	2.5%	no record
UA 1651 United	BUF 10:45	ORD 11:41	22%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 856 American	BUF 18:56	ORD 20:11	27%	11%	1.9%	no record
OO 4741 SkyWest	BUF 13:47	ORD 14:38	31%	12%	2.6%	no record
UA 2747 United Flight history →	BUF 18:04	ORD 19:03	32%	13%	0.9%	63%
UA 4381 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 13:54	ORD 14:55	27%	16%	2.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON