Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via BWI, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756	56m Baltimore	BWI 08:11 → RSW 10:53WN 1066	4h 53m	97%	87%
United Details →	BUF 06:55 → ORD 07:40UA 543	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 11:05 → RSW 15:07UA 2137	8h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 11m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	7h 11m	99%	83%
American Details →	BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204	3h 58m Charlotte	CLT 11:59 → RSW 14:08AA 2018	8h 07m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	54m Detroit	DTW 08:36 → RSW 11:39DL 2001	5h 10m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	6h 39m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	BUF 15:26 → BWI 16:41WN 758	50m Baltimore	BWI 17:31 → RSW 20:12WN 1707	4h 46m	90%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON