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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via BWI, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 08:35 → SJU 13:07WN 441 7h 07m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 49m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:55 → ORD 07:40UA 543 1h 09m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 7h 49m 93% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 15:26 → BWI 16:41WN 758 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 17:56 → SJU 22:04WN 1090 6h 38m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:43 → JFK 17:08DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 2h 21m New York JFK 19:29 → SJU 23:53DL 1859 8h 10m 97% 79%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 12:16 → JFK 13:50B6 1901 1h 54m New York JFK 15:44 → SJU 19:47B6 803 7h 31m 97% 67%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 08:42 → MCO 11:22B6 85 1h 12m Orlando MCO 12:34 → SJU 15:41B6 1133 6h 59m 93% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON