tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2545 Southwest BUF 08:07 TPA 10:53 5% 2% 0.9% no record
WN 3119 Southwest BUF 16:09 TPA 18:59 13% 5% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 29m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756 1h 16m Baltimore BWI 08:31 → TPA 11:01WN 1102 5h 01m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:55 → ORD 07:40UA 543 3h 39m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 17m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 17m Philadelphia PHL 09:03 → TPA 11:57AA 1981 6h 37m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 21m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 7h 17m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457 7h 38m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 15:26 → BWI 16:41WN 758 1h 54m Baltimore BWI 18:35 → TPA 21:22WN 2415 5h 56m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON