Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 07:57, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 07:57 → LAS 09:05WN 786	1h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 10:45 → DAL 15:18WN 245	5h 21m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	BUR 15:16 → LAS 16:25WN 792	1h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 17:36 → DAL 22:09WN 378	4h 53m	95%	81%
Southwest Details →	BUR 16:54 → PHX 18:18WN 824	47m Phoenix	PHX 19:05 → DAL 23:29WN 1765	4h 35m	83%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON