Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 3259 at 11:59, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3259 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 11:59	EUG 14:17	13%	7%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 07:57 → LAS 09:05WN 786	1h 39m Las Vegas	LAS 10:44 → EUG 12:50WN 4763	4h 53m	100%	90%
Alaska Details →	BUR 17:34 → SEA 20:14AS 537	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	6h 25m	96%	86%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 16m Portland	PDX 21:41 → EUG 22:41AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest	4h 31m	93%	85%
United Details →	BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386	3h 58m San Francisco	SFO 16:19 → EUG 17:54UA 502	7h 01m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 06m San Francisco	SFO 16:19 → EUG 17:54UA 502	4h 09m	74%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON