tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via SFO, leaving 18:42, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 3h 06m San Francisco SFO 23:16 → IAD 07:40 +1UA 2111 9h 58m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 7h 54m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 20m San Francisco SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 9h 09m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 11:06 → SEA 13:46AS 1388 2h 08m Seattle SEA 15:54 → IAD 00:11 +1AS 675 10h 05m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:09 → IAD 20:16AA 2254 10h 15m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 17:34 → SEA 20:14AS 537 2h 29m Seattle SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367 10h 05m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 44m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 44m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 46m 87% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 54m San Francisco SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 7h 32m 73% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON